Vesmir COVID-19 Weekly Update, 04/10/2021

April 11, 2021
Alan Lindsey


The U.S. worsening in terms of COVID-19 cases continued this week and the improvement in death rate has worsened slightly. On the positive side, rapid vaccinations in the U.S. continue with 35.0% of the population now having their first shot.

Globally the situation looks worse, as vaccinations are slower in most of the world than in the U.S. Notable exceptions are the U.K. and Israel which are both improving, and Europe’s increase in cases seems to be slowing.

U.S. COVID-19 County-level Overview

U.S. COVID-19 Travel Map
U.S. COVID-19 Travel Map

Incidence rates have worsened this week in total and death rates worsened slightly in the U.S. this week. 63.7% of U.S. Counties are in or above the High Incidence Rate Class. Those counties are in red or maroon on this map. The New York City area is improving a bit but Michigan, Florida, Colorado, the Texas Panhandle, and the Chicago and Minneapolis areas worsening.

Average daily deaths in the U.S. for a two-week period are now at 874 deaths/day up from 868 deaths/day last week. To reach typical flu death rates, we need to drop to 100 deaths/day in the U.S.

U.S. COVID-19 County-level Detail

U.S. COVID-19 Relative Intensity Map
U.S. COVID-19 Relative Intensity Map

It is concerning to see the Chicago area and Colorado areas begin to rise and trouble brew in the Texas panhandle and in western Arizona. Incidence rates in total are rising in the U.S.

The cutoff for Two-Week Cum. Incidence Rate of the top 10% of counties has risen from 380 to 411 and the lowest 10% fell to 37 in the past week for an average rise of 1%.

13% of U.S. counties have incidence rates of 350 per 100,000 people or higher, putting them in the Very high Incidence Rate Class, up from 12% witnessed last week.

64.3% of U.S. Counties are in or above the High Incidence Rate Class.

U.S. COVID-19 State Incidence Rate Trends

U.S. COVID-19 State Average of County Incidence Rate Trends
U.S. COVID-19 State Average of County Incidence Rate Trends

Incidence rates in total are rising in the U.S. according to this week’s JHU report. Eight states see most counties worsening down from eleven states last week. Michigan is especially notable as they are the only state with the average county being in the Very High Incidence Rate class.

Texas, Arizona, and Oregon have joined the list of states where the county averages are rising markedly.

U.S. COVID-19 Death Rate Trends

U.S. COVID-19 Death Rate Trend
U.S. COVID-19 Death Rates and Typical Influenza Death Rate

Death rates have been falling rapidly in the U.S., but that improvement has halted for the moment. The gray line is what the decline would look like if it continued on the linear trend from 03/20/2021. Notice that the blue line marking actual deaths shows the death rate is rising a small amount this week.

Impressively,  the U.K’s two-week death rate has fallen to 1.6 times that of average daily rate of flu compared to 3x flu for Israel and 8.6x flu for the U.S.  The U.S. is starting to tick up in death rate again, though way down from max of 31.5x the flu death rate. #COVID19

The U.S. COVID-19 Death Rates need to fall to 100 deaths per day to match the approximate daily rate of death for influenza, and are currently at 874 deaths per day.

U.S. CDC COVID-19 Death Forecast
U.S. CDC COVID-19 Death Forecast

The CDC, as of their April 7th report, forecasts a flattening then slow decrease in deaths. This week’s forecast is an improvement over last week when an increase was predicted after April 15. There is considerable variance, so we need to keep an eye on actual counts.

Global COVID-19 Overview

Global COVID-19 Travel Map
Global COVID-19 Travel Map

Deaths are rising markedly in Poland, Bulgaria, Peru, and Uruguay, while improving at a rapid clip in Spain and the Czech Republic.

Israel continues to improve in both deaths and incidence rates and continues to lead the world in vaccination rate.

A complete set of U.S. and Global COVID-19 Travel Maps can be found here: COVID-19 Travel Maps

See this link for COVID-19 resources: COVID-19 Resources

You can reach Alan Lindsey, on Twitter: @Azrlindsey.

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