Vesmir COVID-19 Weekly Update, 04/24/2021

Summary

The U.S. turned to overall improvement this week in terms of COVID-19 cases and the death rate has improved nicely as well. The Colorado Front Range has worsened markedly as has Maine this week.

Rapid vaccinations in the U.S. continue with 41.5% of the population now having their first shot.

Looking at global trends, much of Europe is improving, but Germany, The Netherlands, and Spain are worsening in terms of cases. India, Argentina, and Colombia are also worsening significantly.

Countries worsening rapidly in terms of deaths include Colombia, Peru, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Iran. On the bright side, Mexico and Brazil report significant reductions in deaths.

U.S. COVID-19 County-level Overview

Incidence rates have improved overall this week in total and death rates improved in the U.S. as well this week. 65.8% of U.S. Counties are in or above the High Incidence Rate Class. Those counties are in red or maroon on this map. The New York City area is improving a bit as is Michigan but Florida, the Colorado Front Range, Oregon, and Washington areas are worsening.

Missouri made a data adjustment this week and their numbers are incorrect.

Average daily deaths in the U.S. for a two-week period are now at 689 deaths/day down from 823 deaths/day last week. To reach typical flu death rates, we need to drop to 100 deaths/day in the U.S.

U.S. COVID-19 County-level Detail

Most major population centers are improving, but the Colorado Front Range, Washington, Oregon, and Florida are worsening.

The cutoff for Two-Week Cum. Incidence Rate of the top 10% of counties has dropped from 445 to 418 and the lowest 10% rose to 29 in the past week, likely artificially low due to adjustments in Missouri. We expect that to clear up next week.

14% of U.S. counties have incidence rates of 350 per 100,000 people or higher, putting them in the Very High Incidence Rate Class, down from 15% witnessed last week.

65.8% of U.S. Counties are in or above the High Incidence Rate Class.

U.S. COVID-19 State Incidence Rate Trends

Incidence rates in total are rising in the U.S. according to this week’s JHU report. Only one state, Maine, sees most counties worsening down from seven states last week.

U.S. COVID-19 Death Rate Trends

Death rates have improved a bit more this week. The gray line above shows what the decline would look like if it continued on the linear trend from 03/20/2021. Notice that the blue line marking actual deaths shows the death rate is continuing to fall this week.

Impressively,  the U.K’s two-week death rate has fallen to 1.7 times that of average daily rate of flu compared to 1.4x flu for Israel and 7.0x flu for the U.S.  The U.S. is death rate improvement has slowed, but is way down from max of 31.5x the flu death rate.

The U.S. COVID-19 Death Rates need to fall to 100 deaths per day to match the approximate daily rate of death for influenza, and are currently at 689 deaths per day.

The CDC, as of their April 19th report, forecasts a slow rise, then slow decease in deaths. There is considerable variance, so we need to keep an eye on actual counts.

Global COVID-19 Overview

Much of Europe is improving, but Germany, The Netherlands, and Spain are worsening in terms of cases. India, Argentina, and Colombia are also worsening significantly.

Countries worsening rapidly in terms of deaths include Colombia, Peru, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Iran. On the bright side, Mexico and Brazil report significant reductions in deaths.

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A complete set of U.S. and Global COVID-19 Travel Maps can be found here: COVID-19 Travel Maps

See this link for COVID-19 resources: COVID-19 Resources

You can reach Alan Lindsey on Twitter: @Azrlindsey.