Vesmir COVID-19 Weekly Update, 05/08/2021

Summary

The U.S. accelerated improvement this week in terms of COVID-19 cases and the death rate has improved as well. The Colorado Front Range began to improve this week. Michigan and Florida continue to struggle with significantly high death rates.

Rapid vaccinations in the U.S. continue with 45.2% of the population now having their first shot.

India joins the Very High Incidence Rate Class this week, and cases are rising rapidly there as well.

Aruba, Bonaire, Guadalupe, Martinique, and Costa Rica join Bahrain and India in having the worst problems in the world with COVID-19 on a per capita basis. India is by far the most impactful with 47,224 deaths and 4.9 million cases reported in the past two weeks.

U.S. COVID-19 County-level Overview

Incidence rates have improved overall in total and death rates improved in the U.S. as well this week. 61.7% of U.S. Counties are in or above the High Incidence Rate Class. Those counties are in red or maroon on this map. Colorado seems to be back on track this week with improvements in the major population centers of the Front Range.

Notice that the filled in symbols in red indicate moderately high or higher death rate trends, and those continue to be a problem in several areas including Michigan and Florida.

Average daily deaths in the U.S. for a two-week period are now at 651 deaths/day down from 666 deaths/day last week. To reach typical flu death rates, we need to drop to 100 deaths/day in the U.S., which is achievable based on results in the U.K. and Israel.

U.S. COVID-19 County-level Detail

Most of the U.S is seeing improvement this week!

The cutoff for Two-Week Cum. Incidence Rate of the top 10% of counties has dropped from 367 to 328 and the lowest 10% fell to 38 in the past week. 8% of U.S. counties have incidence rates of 350 per 100,000 people or higher, putting them in the Very High Incidence Rate Class, down from 11% witnessed last week.

61.7% of U.S. Counties are in or above the High Incidence Rate Class.

U.S. COVID-19 State Incidence Rate Trends

Only 7 states in the U.S. are seeing an appreciable rise in cases this week. Colorado, which rose rapidly last week, has a falling county average this week!

U.S. COVID-19 Death Rate Trends

The gray line above shows what the decline would look like if deaths fell on the linear trend from 03/20/2021. Notice that the blue line marking actual deaths shows the death rate is continuing to fall modestly this week.

The U.S. COVID-19 Death Rates need to fall to 100 deaths per day to match the approximate daily rate of death for influenza, and are currently at 651 deaths per day.

It can be done! Both the UK and Israel have shown that countries that have struggled mightily with COVID-19 can knock it back. Currently the death rate is 6.5x flu for the U.S; far below the max of 31.5x the flu death rate observed 1/16/2021.

The CDC, as of their May 3rd report, forecasts an increasing improvement in death rates! Estimates continue to show low variance this week as well.

Global COVID-19 Overview

India joins the Very High Incidence Rate Class this week, and cases are rising rapidly there as well. While many other countries are also in that class, as shown in maroon on the map above, only six share similar increases in cases and moderately high or higher death rates as well.

Aruba, Bonaire, Guadalupe, Martinique, and Costa Rica join Bahrain and India in having the worst problems in the world with COVID-19 on a per capita basis. India is by far the most impactful with 47,224 deaths and 4.9 million cases reported in the past two weeks.

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A complete set of U.S. and Global COVID-19 Travel Maps can be found here: COVID-19 Travel Maps

See this link for COVID-19 resources: COVID-19 Resources

You can reach Alan Lindsey on Twitter: @Azrlindsey.