Vesmir COVID-19 Weekly Update, 05/01/2021

Summary

The U.S. accelerated improvement this week in terms of COVID-19 cases and the death rate has improved as well. The Colorado Front Range continues to worsen.

Rapid vaccinations in the U.S. continue with 43.7% of the population now having their first shot.

Looking at global trends, both the UK and Israel now have death rates from COVID-19 less than average death rates from influenza in the US! India, Nepal, Latvia, Georgia, and a number of islands in the Caribbean report rapidly increasing cases.

Argentina appears to have turned a corner in terms of cases and is improving rapidly on that front.

Countries worsening rapidly in terms of deaths include Colombia, Peru, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Iran. On the bright side, Mexico and Brazil report significant reductions in deaths.

U.S. COVID-19 County-level Overview

Incidence rates have improved overall in total and death rates improved in the U.S. as well this week. 64.9% of U.S. Counties are in or above the High Incidence Rate Class. Those counties are in red or maroon on this map. Colorado is especially struggling as incidence rates rise.

Average daily deaths in the U.S. for a two-week period are now at 666 deaths/day down from 689 deaths/day last week. To reach typical flu death rates, we need to drop to 100 deaths/day in the U.S.

U.S. COVID-19 County-level Detail

Colorado takes center stage this week, being the only state with most counties worsening. Most major population centers on the east and west coasts are improving.

The cutoff for Two-Week Cum. Incidence Rate of the top 10% of counties has dropped from 418 to 367 and the lowest 10% rose to 39 in the past week.

11% of U.S. counties have incidence rates of 350 per 100,000 people or higher, putting them in the Very High Incidence Rate Class, down from 14% witnessed last week.

64.9% of U.S. Counties are in or above the High Incidence Rate Class.

U.S. COVID-19 State Incidence Rate Trends

Incidence rates in total are rising in the U.S. according to this week’s JHU report. Only one state, Colorado, sees most counties worsening. Last week it was Maine, this week Colorado.

U.S. COVID-19 Death Rate Trends

Death rates have improved a bit more this week, though not as quickly as the prior week. The gray line above shows what the decline would look like if it continued on the linear trend from 03/20/2021. Notice that the blue line marking actual deaths shows the death rate is continuing to fall modestly this week.

It can be done! Both the UK and Israel have shown that countries that have struggled mightily with COVID-19 can knock it back. Impressively,  the U.K’s two-week death rate has fallen to 0.93 times that of average daily rate of flu compared to 0.7x flu for Israel and 6.7x flu for the U.S.  The U.S. is death rate improvement has slowed, but is way down from max of 31.5x the flu death rate.

The U.S. COVID-19 Death Rates need to fall to 100 deaths per day to match the approximate daily rate of death for influenza, and are currently at 666 deaths per day.

The CDC, as of their April 26th report, forecasts an increasing improvement in death rates! Estimates show less variance this week as well, so it is more likely this forecast will hold.

Global COVID-19 Overview

Both the UK and Israel now have death rates from COVID-19 less than average death rates from influenza in the US! India, Nepal, Latvia, Georgia, and a number of islands in the Caribbean report rapidly increasing cases. Argentina appears to have turned a corner in terms of cases and is improving rapidly on that front.

Countries worsening rapidly in terms of deaths include Paraguay and Argentina, and Iran. On the bright side, Mexico and Brazil continue to report significant reductions in deaths, and much or eastern Europe is improving rapidly in terms of death rates as well.

---

A complete set of U.S. and Global COVID-19 Travel Maps can be found here: COVID-19 Travel Maps

See this link for COVID-19 resources: COVID-19 Resources

You can reach Alan Lindsey on Twitter: @Azrlindsey.