Vesmir COVID-19 Weekly Update, 04/17/2021

April 18, 2021
Alan Lindsey


The U.S. worsening in terms of COVID-19 cases continued this week and the death rate has improved slightly. Rapid vaccinations in the U.S. continue with 38.7% of the population now having their first shot.

Globally the situation looks worse, with both Europe and South America being especially challenged. India also entered the High Incidence Rate class this week.

U.S. COVID-19 County-level Overview

U.S. COVID-19 Travel Map

Incidence rates have worsened this week in total and death rates improved slightly in the U.S. this week. 64.4% of U.S. Counties are in or above the High Incidence Rate Class. Those counties are in red or maroon on this map. The New York City area is improving a bit but Michigan, Florida, Colorado, the Texas Panhandle, and the Chicago and Minneapolis areas worsening. Los Angeles has joined the ranks of counties that are worsening.

Missouri made a data adjustment this week and their numbers are incorrect.

Average daily deaths in the U.S. for a two-week period are now at 823 deaths/day down from 874 deaths/day last week. To reach typical flu death rates, we need to drop to 100 deaths/day in the U.S.

U.S. COVID-19 County-level Detail

U.S. COVID-19 Relative Intensity Map

It is concerning to see the Chicago area and Colorado areas continue to rise and trouble brew in the Texas panhandle and in western Arizona. Incidence rates in total are rising in the U.S.

The cutoff for Two-Week Cum. Incidence Rate of the top 10% of counties has risen from 411 to 445 and the lowest 10% fell to 25 in the past week, likely artificially low due to adjustments in Missouri.

15% of U.S. counties have incidence rates of 350 per 100,000 people or higher, putting them in the Very High Incidence Rate Class, up from 13% witnessed last week.

64.4% of U.S. Counties are in or above the High Incidence Rate Class.

U.S. COVID-19 State Incidence Rate Trends

U.S. COVID-19 State Average of County Incidence Rate Trends

Incidence rates in total are rising in the U.S. according to this week’s JHU report. Seven states see most counties worsening down from eight states last week. Michigan is still in bad shape, but their county average improved to the High Incidence Rate Class this week.

Indiana joined the list of states where the county averages are rising markedly, and Arizona and Pennsylvania improved enough to leave that category.

U.S. COVID-19 Death Rate Trends

U.S. COVID-19 Death Rates and Typical Influenza Death Rate

Death rates have improved slightly this week. The gray line above shows what the decline would look like if it continued on the linear trend from 03/20/2021. Notice that the blue line marking actual deaths shows the death rate is falling a small amount this week.

Impressively,  the U.K’s two-week death rate has fallen to 1.6 times that of average daily rate of flu compared to 2.3x flu for Israel and 8.2x flu for the U.S.  The U.S. is death rate improvement has slowed, but is way down from max of 31.5x the flu death rate.

The U.S. COVID-19 Death Rates need to fall to 100 deaths per day to match the approximate daily rate of death for influenza, and are currently at 823 deaths per day.

U.S. CDC COVID-19 Death Forecast

The CDC, as of their April 12th report, forecasts a flattening then slow increase in deaths. This week’s forecast is a bit sobering compared to last week. There is considerable variance, so we need to keep an eye on actual counts.

Global COVID-19 Overview

Global COVID-19 Travel Map

Deaths are rising markedly in France, Germany, Poland, Ukraine, and Sweden in Europe. South America looks even worse with death rates rising rapidly in Colombia, Peru, Paraguay, and Uruguay. India entered the High Incidence Rate Class this week.

Israel continues to improve in both deaths and incidence rates and continues to lead the world in vaccination rate.

A complete set of U.S. and Global COVID-19 Travel Maps can be found here: COVID-19 Travel Maps

See this link for COVID-19 resources: COVID-19 Resources

You can reach Alan Lindsey, on Twitter: @Azrlindsey.

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