Vesmir COVID-19 Weekly Update, 05/22/2021

Summary

The U.S. continued improvement this week in terms of COVID-19 cases and the death rate has improved as well. In fact, less than 50% of U.S. counties are now in the High or Very High incidence Rate classes! Vaccinations in the U.S. continue at a healthy clip with 48.6% of the population now having their first shot.

There are nine countries in the world with very high and rapidly increasing incidence rates along with high death rates, and six are in Central or South America: Uruguay, Paraguay, Argentina, Trinidad and Tobago, Costa Rica, and Chile.

U.S. COVID-19 County-level Overview

Incidence rates have improved overall in total and death rates improved in the U.S. as well this week. 45.2% of U.S. Counties are in or above the High Incidence Rate Class. Those counties are in red or maroon on this map.

Average daily deaths in the U.S. for a two-week period are now at 554 deaths/day down from 606 deaths/day last week. To reach typical flu death rates, we need to drop to 100 deaths/day in the U.S., which is achievable based on results in the U.K. and Israel.

U.S. COVID-19 County-level Detail

Most of the U.S is seeing improvement this week!

The cutoff for Two-Week Cum. Incidence Rate of the top 10% of counties has dropped from 270 to 227 and the lowest 10% fell to 24 in the past week. 3% of U.S. counties have incidence rates of 350 per 100,000 people or higher, putting them in the Very High Incidence Rate Class, down from 5% witnessed last week.

45.2% of U.S. Counties are in or above the High Incidence Rate Class.

U.S. COVID-19 State Incidence Rate Trends

Many states are improving rapidly this week, and none are rapidly worsening. There are a few states including Texas, New Mexico, Mississippi, Missouri, and Idaho that are worsening appreciably.

U.S. COVID-19 Death Rate Trends

The line in blue shows that death rates are continuing to drop slowly this week The U.S. COVID-19 Death Rates need to fall to 100 deaths per day to match the approximate daily rate of death for influenza, and are currently at 554 deaths per day. We could see that rate by August 1st at this rate of improvement. I wish we could get back on the rapid improvement trend and be done in two weeks, but that’s very unlikely at this point.

The CDC, as of their May 17th report, forecasts an increasing improvement in death rates. Estimates continue to show low variance this week as well.

Global COVID-19 Overview

COVID-19 is especially troubling in South America this week. Countries in maroon on the map below are the nine countries in the world with very high and rapidly increasing incidence rates along with high death rates.

Those countries are Uruguay, Paraguay, Argentina, Trinidad and Tobago, Maldives, Costa Rica, Bahrain, Seychelles, and Chile.

---

A complete set of U.S. and Global COVID-19 Travel Maps can be found here: COVID-19 Travel Maps

See this link for COVID-19 resources: COVID-19 Resources

You can reach Alan Lindsey on Twitter: @Azrlindsey.